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Benchmarking Insights with MSG: 2023 Holiday Forecast
By Sarah Levitt
As we navigate the ever-evolving landscape of digital advertising, a retrospective glance at last year’s Holiday season sets the stage for understanding the current pulse of the market, and where there’s opportunity for the remainder of the year. The shifts in Open CPMs, impressions, and advertiser preferences provide valuable insights into the dynamics of Q4 advertising, laying the groundwork for what to expect for Holiday 2023.
Throughout October, Open CPMs for both Display and Video were slightly higher than in 2022, and we’re hoping this trend continues throughout the rest of the year. However, Open Impressions have decreased since mid-September and into Q4 this year, potentially bolstering prices, and a reaction to shifts into the private markets.
Last year, we saw growth in PG, as new advertisers entered the market in the private space. We’re anticipating a similar trend in 2023, with new spenders joining over the next couple of weeks.
From an advertiser category standpoint, CPG has been showing strong ad spend in the Open market, Pharma has seen growth in Private Auction, and Food & Beverage has seen substantial ad spend increases in PG. All areas to capitalize on for the remainder of Q4.
Despite these optimistic trends, economic and global uncertainty prevails in the forecast for the remainder of 2023. We’ll share updates as we continue to monitor advertiser spend and market trends.
Key Takeaways and Theme:
CPM Trends:
- On Black Friday and Cyber Monday we witnessed a downturn of ~10-15%+ in 2022 compared to the previous year. However, there is optimism for the 2023 holiday season, with early October Display and Video CPMs exceeding (although just slightly) those of 2022.
Impressions and Patterns:
- Impressions on Cyber Monday and Black Friday dipped in 2022, signaling a shift in consumer engagement. Notably, Open impressions were consistently up throughout 2023 until mid-September, when they started to decline.
Advertiser Category Rankings:
- Q4 2022 saw a reshuffling of vertical rankings. Shopping, and Telecom witnessed significant growth in 2023 YTD, and should continue that momentum as we continue in Q4.
Top Advertisers:
- Q4 2022 featured Hyundai, GM, Hilton, Expedia, and Norwegian Cruise Lines as top movers.
- In 2023, potential key players include J&J, P&G, Diageo, Unilever, Kimberly Clark, Target, and Eli Lily, reflecting strength in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sector.
Programmatic Guaranteed (PG), Preferred Deal (PD), and Private Auctions:
- PG advertisers experienced a surge in Q4 2022, with 15 top spending advertisers shifting their strategies. The trend continued into 2023, with Mars, Red Bull, Pepsi, Heineken, and Allergan leading the charge.
- PD and Private Auctions saw strategic moves in 2022, with new advertisers entering the PD realm. T-Mobile, Dyson, and Microsoft are anticipated to be strong in PD in 2023.
- Private Auction witnessed significant increases from pharmaceutical giants like GSK, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lily in Q4 2022 and are expected to maintain this strength in 2023.
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